Rough Month. Ouch.
Our net worth declined by 11.42% in USD and 6.48% in EUR to $110,276 and €104,329 respectively. The euro loss was offset by the appreciation of the dollar relative to the euro. At the same time, our euro debt was reduced in value relative to the dollar.
This was our worst month financially since March 2020.
Stock Decline: Sleep Test and Indexing
Obviously, the main driver was the stock market declines. I wish I could say I bathed in glory and withstood the desire to sell anything. I wish I could say I wasn't scared. I wish I could say that the online chatter didn't influence my decisions.
I sold some stuff. I was scared. I let myself be influenced by noise.
That said, I tinkered rather than dismantled. I knew that at any moment, the whole thing could turn around, so it was unwise to go to cash 100%. So if my tinkerings were mistakes (as they almost certainly were), they will be small mistakes rather than absolute disasters.
One thing that's become abundantly clear though is that my overall portfolio is not passing the "sleep test". I am often worried about it. It is often gnawing at me, prompting me to take action in one way or another.
It's stupid. I'm saving money in order to improve my life, but if I'm stressing over it, then what's the point?
So I'm going to start indexing most of my new money. I'll start with about $7,000 and put most new money into that on a monthly basis. I intend to write more about this decision, but long story short is: I need a pool of money where I don't worry about individual securities. Right now, I have to worry about each individual name in my portfolio. Might this company perform poorly? Have I overweighted this company? Maybe this is a secular decline, and I'm missing it?
I hate all this. This worry is a negative in my life, and so far my stock picking ability has not shown itself to be superior, so it's an emotional negative for not much gain.
Covid Caught
As a backdrop to all this, I've caught the coronavirus. Last Friday, as the worst day of selling was ravaging my portfolio, I was sitting home alone having called in sick to work. I had the sinking suspicion that I'd caught it, but since I'm both vaccinated and boosted, all my self tests came back negative.
Only on Sunday did the test faintly show positive. Now I know why they say the self tests take fifteen minutes: the control line appears quickly, but it takes much longer for the T line to show up. If you just wait for the C line, you might miss the eventual faint T line, which tells you that you're positive.
My employer requested that I get a "Bürgertest" (a free fast test administered by an official testing center) and, if positive, a PCR test. Both came back positive, and so I'm at home at least until next Monday.
Financially, this is a set back. I was set to do some extra work for my employer that would have paid me a fair amount of money. Someone else will do that now. On the upside, at least I can't go out and spend money, but that's little comfort.
Ironically, I caught it at work, where a mini super-spreader event occurred. Restrictions have been lightened in the past few weeks, and we had a week and a half of vacation. Simultaneously, our thrice-weekly testing regimen was changed from PCR tests to antigen tests. Someone must have had a false negative and come to work, where they infected me and around 20 other colleagues. Go team.
Health-wise, this thing was awful. Saturday and Sunday were especially unpleasant with coughing, sneezing, runny nose, body aches and pains, a high fever, and an overall sense of fatigue and foreboding. It's gotten progressively better since Monday, but my voice is still froggy, and I'm still congested. If this is what it feels like with the vaccine, then what the hell does it feel like without it?
So far, my wife hasn't caught it, but unfortunately, it may be just a matter of time.
Final Thoughts
I don't know how to guess about May. But during May I'll be thinking about how to pass the sleep test. What actually worries me during drawdowns? What is so scary?
I'll also try and come up with an asset allocation plan that's simple and effective for my new indexing allocation.
Until next time, stay healthy, and remember that relationships are wealth.
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