Update: March, 2021

In March our liquid net worth dropped 3.38% in USD and .26% in EUR to $91,767 and €77,834 respectively.

There were three major influences on these numbers:

1. The stock market had increased volatility, and it impacted a lot of the names in my portfolio. Growth stocks fell out of favor this month, and I have a bunch of those. The few "value" names that are in there, or names associated with value like Berkshire Hathaway, did pretty well.
2. The dollar strengthened against the euro. A month ago, it took 1.217 dollars to buy a euro, and now it only takes 1.179. That's a pretty quick drop, and you'll notice that despite the lower prices of my US stocks hurting our $ number, our € was basically flat.
3. We had a number of large expenses. In March we pay our estimated taxes, and it was also the month we had to pay for our tax preparation. We're expected two large payments from the German government (tax refund and help for businesses affected by the pandemic), but those haven't landed yet, so I'm not counting them.

A Year Since the Plunge

A lot has changed over the past year, to put it mildly. In March, 2020 we had the largest month over month change since I began writing this blog:

Our net worth dropped since this time in February by 12.16% in USD and 12.48% in EUR to $52,448 and €47,985 respectively.

The reason is obvious. Our stock portfolios fell precipitously as Europe and the United States responded aggressively to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since then however, our year over year change is up 75% in USD. We certainly didn't save enough over the last year to explain that number; instead the stocks we own just did really well, and we plugged in money whenever we could.

If I can give myself credit for anything it's that I didn't lose my cool and sell everything. I did sell some right as the panic started, to be sure, but it was mostly tinkering around the edges. And that money stayed in the market (except for sales to close out our margin balance). So we got to enjoy the weird ride up over the last year.

There's always some hindsight bias. If I'd known how the market would react, I wouldn't have sold anything, including the margined positions. I would have reduced our emergency fund and would have thrown it and the stimmy payment from the US government into the market as soon as I could.

But I was scared, and it was hard enough to just hold and add a little. Even Warren Buffett sold the airlines, and at the time it seemed like a reasonable decision. I sold my retailers (Simon Property and Foot Locker), and that was - with hindsight bias - a terrible decision, but it looked like we were entering a new paradigm, and assumptions I used in buying those positions weren't strong enough to keep me holding them, so I sold and ate my largest losses ever.

April Forecast

As mentioned earlier, we expect a couple large infusions from the Germans, and someday we'll get those last two American stimulus checks, though I have no expectations for when. As always, the market could have a convulsion in either direction. No matter what though, I'm going to be making my monthly stock purchases today.