Sunday, January 31, 2021

January, 2021 Update

January, 2021 Update

Our net worth climbed to $91,890 and €75,505, an increase of 5.34% and 5.77% respectively. For the first time, our assets grew above $100,000.

Stocks did well, and we had an inflow of cash that obviously more than made up for our spending. I bought another musical instrument, and actually, these numbers include a double charge for which I haven't yet been refunded, so it was a surprisingly good month. We sold something to some friends for a few hundred euros, and at the end of January, I received a bonus as a kind of stimulus due to the pandemic.

Regarding the pandemic, we can't do anything besides order stuff online. We considered buying some plane tickets, but it seems pre-mature at this moment. We can't go to bars, and we can't even have friends over, which often prompts us to spend a lot on groceries. There was none of that this month. Our money went to things, generally, that we can resell later.

We also hit the bonus for an American credit card, which gave us a bunch of very useful points, which we'll eventually use to save money flying back to Germany one day. I value those at 1¢ per point, though the tickets I plan using them on will cost much more than that were I to buy them with cash.

GameStop Thoughts

Since that's the big market news at the moment, I'll say that I'm not participating in this trade. It just isn't my kind of thing. And I generally try to resist this kind of stuff, even if I might end up winning big. My belief is this: the behavior that might make you outrageously rich suddenly is the same kind of behavior that might make you broke suddenly. So I'll stick to my plan, which is doing fine.

I've also watched r/wallstreetbets for a while as a lurker, and while their trade ideas are often really good, there's a time element to them that requires you to be early or not take part at all. However, with the reinforcing peer pressure on the subreddit -- all that talk about "diamond hands" -- it can incentivize the willing latecomers to participate much later than is wise. Just remember, every time you buy, it means someone else is selling.

Anyway, be careful and good luck.

Sunday, January 3, 2021

2020 Wrap Update

By December 26, 2020, our net worth rose 4.1% in USD and 1.72% in EUR to $87,233 and €71,385 respectively. This caps off a year where our liquid net worth rose by 46% in USD.

December Update

This is almost entirely a story of strong stock market performance. In December, our taxable account rose by 5.5%.

We spent a fair amount of money in December. I purchased a new computer for €1550. We spent a lot on groceries. Since we're in lockdown again, we're spending a lot more time at home, which means we're just eating at home a lot and trying to make that as interesting as possible. I've purchased more novelty meals that I normally would because it's hard not to think, "Eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow we die".

We also earned a bit extra. I got my December bonus, which is 1/3 of a month of pay. My wife did a new type of work that gave her a big one-time boost. I made some money from my photography hobby.

Regarding the computer, we saved for this. Since last summer, we'd been saving money every month, so with the extra cash this month plus that savings, it became easy to pull the trigger. I also signed up for a US credit card, so hopefully next month, the signup bonus will land.

2020 Wrap

As of December 26, 2019, we were worth $59,577. That means we experienced a $27,656 rise in wealth in 2020. Of that, we deliberately saved about $17,500 for a savings rate of about 28%. Some of that was the big stimulus check, which we, also, received and left in a US savings account. We also took on a large debt (sans interest) for this piano, and so the rest was stock market appreciation.

Our taxable account had a time-weighted return of 30.3%. Our US tax-deferred accounts rose by 16.5%. That compares to the S&P 500's performance of 16.26%.

It has also to be said that we were extraordinarily lucky this year. Yes, we had good stock market performance, and I deserve some credit for not panicking and selling back in March. However, I got to keep my job, and my wife actually managed to expand her customer base and offer her services online in addition to in-person. Had either of us experienced a complete zeroing out of our incomes, things could have gone very differently.

Not everyone was so lucky, which is true even here in Germany where the social safety net is so high. There's a visible increase in people sleeping outside in our neighborhood, and so we're going to start making monthly donations to a local organization that serves the homeless in our neighborhood. There's one here that's doing visible good work and has had to adapt to the challenges of coronavirus.

Lessons of 2020

Here are some takeaways from the year.

Use budgets to estimate reality and not to impose strict personal austerity

I'd been trying to reduce spending in a few areas by artificially tightening the budget there. For example, our groceries item was always estimated to be lower than the reality. This didn't do anybody any good and just made us feel guilty. I'd still like to get our budget lower, but our budget spreadsheet isn't the place to do that.

Just budget for reality and try and do better than that.

Have the Portfolio You Can Hold Before The Crisis Occurs

It's worth asking yourself what, if anything, about your portfolio makes you uncomfortable. Think through a crash that takes your portfolio with it. What position will keep you up at night when the S&P 500 falls 10% in a day? Deal with it now, when the markets are stable because once they crash, you're going to want to panic sell it.

I took some big losses in March, because I had positions that weren't "hold worthy". I was using some margin, and this was an extra stressor when markets began plunging. I sold a bunch of positions to cover it much earlier than I otherwise would have. It wasn't a catastrophic error, but it could have been. I had also overweighted a position that was too risky, and I ignored the signs that it was turning against me. That will probably stand as my largest loss for a long time.

Check In With Used Prices Often

This is my wife's input, and she's right. We should regularly check in with what something costs used so that we experience sticker shock at the new prices. She has found an online second hand clothing service, and she's been ordering things for €5.

Take Walks: You Never Know What You'll Find

This is neighborhood specific, but my wife's walking habit in May and June got us some nice free used items. Nothing was especially luxurious, but you never know what a neighbor would rather be rid of immediately for free if you don't get outside and look around.

At the same time, we also often leave some free things out front for passers-by to take, so it's a virtuous cycle.

2021 Thoughts

It's hard to make estimates for what a year will bring. This time last year, coronavirus wasn't on our radar. I never would have guessed that we'd have bought a new piano or computer. Nor could I have guessed that we wouldn't fly to the US.

I'm going to keep making monthly stock purchases. I'm going to try and get more of these photography jobs as well as look for other avenues of income generation. I assume my wife will continue diversifying her customers. I assume my employer will still exist. I want to fly to the US.

We wish you a healthy and prosperous 2021, and if you experienced any misfortune in 2020, I hope that 2021 will be a happier year for you.