Net Worth Update: March, 2020

Our net worth dropped since this time in February by 12.16% in USD and 12.48% in EUR to $52,448 and €47,985 respectively.

The reason is obvious. Our stock portfolios fell precipitously as Europe and the United States responded aggressively to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Big Picture

Thankfully, I still have my salaried job, and my employer has stated that we're at no risk of dissolving. My wife's work hours have dried up considerably, but she is still working over Zoom for those clients who can still manage it. My sibling still has a job despite vast layoffs. Both parents have Social Security at least and one has a healthy retirement portfolio.

Most importantly, none of us have caught the virus yet. However, I don't know how long I can expect that. Two family members live in one of the hot-spot cities in the US. One parent is working again and coming into contact with people. I have nagged them to take precautions as far as is reasonable, and I have to trust them to take care of themselves.

As of right now, I feel like I'm in an enviable position, and I consider myself very lucky. But when I see charts like this:

Or this:

I recognize that anything that affects so many people will eventually affect me as well. It's just a matter of time, and I've been mentally preparing as best I can.

Savings Rate and Other Factors

Our savings rate of our mixed pre/post tax income was 46.3%. Easiest way to get your savings rate up is to hold expenses steady when you earn more money, and this month is clear evidence of that.

I received an outsized payment at the end of February due to some extra work I did. My employer also gave me too much money, and that will be taken out of my end-of-March payment. That will obviously hurt April's savings.

We paid estimated taxes in March. Fun fun.

We spent much too much on groceries this month. We didn't stockpile aggressively at all, but we ended up well outside of our budget.

We received a refund for overpayment of health insurance for my wife. Because she's self employed and utilizes the public system (the gesetzliche Krankenkasse), her payments are based on income and fluctuate every year.

April

April is going to be tight. I wish I had a lot more money to throw at the market or our emergency savings, but it's not going to happen unless we get one of these stimulus checks from the IRS in the next few weeks.

Good luck and stay healthy.

Self-Assessment: Early Coronavirus Edition

Now that our situation has settled into our new reality, which I'll call "Semi-Self-Imposed Lockdown," I have some time to think through our position and evaluate what's going well, and what's not going so well.

What we did well leading up to this crisis

• We have an emergency fund. I don't think it's large enough, but I'll get into that with the critiques section.
• We have a stable income. My job is such that I am unlikely to be laid off during this crisis. My wife's work scales up and down, which makes it more vulnerable, but there's no point where she's "fired": work will simply start to come back over time. Because of her stability via my income, she may come out of this with an even stronger position.
• We have liquid investments that could be turned into cash if necessary. I really don't want to turn them into cash, but if it were absolutely necessary, we could probably survive a year off of our current investments.
• We always tended to buy large amounts of shelf-stable food. We still had to go to the grocery store a few times at the start, but we could have eaten our stores of stuff if we felt it wasn't worth the risk.
• We have a large amount of unused credit on American credit cards. If we had to, we could run up a giant credit card bill. It's wouldn't be ideal, but having credit is better than not having it.
• We live in a country with a social safety net and a willingness to help its residents.

Critiques

• Our emergency fund wasn't large enough. Currently, we could last a month to two months with our emergency fund. Despite my employment stability, it's not a 100% guarantee that I come out the other side of this with a job if the German economy collapses for years. Although I'm unlikely to lose my job, I am also unlikely to easily get a new job quickly if I lose this one.
• We don't own our own home outright. Renting has long seemed the wise course of action, but not having to make rent payments would go a long way towards easing my mind.
• We don't have enough over-the-counter drugs. We have aspirin and some anti-histamines, but we have no expectorants, NSAIDS other than aspirin, acetaminophen, not to mention rubbing alcohol. The German Apotheke system is great when you get a prescription, but it makes getting certain normal items more challenging than in the US.
• My investment portfolio is not diversified enough amongst asset classes. I should be holding some bonds, for example, and I'm not.
• I came into this with margin debt. Holding margin debt years into a long-run bull market is dumb. Full stop.
• I underestimated the risk of pandemic to my investment portfolio and to my life.
• We should have larger food stores. They sell giant bags of rice here, and we should probably always have at least one. Likewise lots of pasta. Likewise lots of soy milk (the cartons keep for a long time at room temperature). The risk isn't so much that we'd run out of food due to shortages, but instead it's risky going outside right now to stand in a supermarket line. Minimizing grocery store trips is important right now.

Some Action Steps

First, I need to separate out our savings into clearer buckets. I've been dumping everything into the Tagesgeldkonto (savings account), even though I'd mentally earmarked it for taxes or tax prep costs. One account should be strictly for the emergency money, and it should get steady contributions to it until it reaches the famed 6-months-of-expenses level. It's possible that FATCA will make this more difficult than it should be.

Second, we should be saving money to buy property. That needn't have a specific end date, but it's one of those things that gives us optionality should a compelling offer arise. Somewhere I read that Ramit Sethi saves some money to buy a house/apartment not because he definitely wants to buy one but because having the option is worth it.

Third, I need to go to the Apotheke and pick up some useful over-the-counter drugs. I could also order them online.

Fourth, I should build a 10% position in long-term bonds. I can buy individual bonds in Interactive Brokers no problem. The interest rates are garbage, but they provide stability and rebalancing potential in terrible stock market situations. And at the end, you get your money back.

Fifth, I shouldn't use margin.

Sixth, this blog post is my attempt to come to terms with pandemic risk.

Seventh, honestly it would be irresponsible to try and build up large amounts of food storage right now due to the general run on the grocery stores that's happening. But once the shopping situation improves, we should get on that.

Rethink Risk

Lastly, I need to reevaluate risk. I'm not going to do that by selling stocks right now. That moment has passed. But the way I was using my money was clearly riskier than I appreciated or wanted.

I have to find a new way to judge my risk tolerance and build a portfolio of assets that match it. At the same time, this crisis will subside, and we all have to make sure that we're not just fighting the last war but imagining what new surprises might come our way.

Constant Acceleration of Coronavirus News

In the past few days, it feels like the news is accelerating rapidly and in ways that directly impact us:

• The United States is no longer accepting travelers from the Schengen area of Europe, including Ireland and the UK and my personal expat home of Germany. If I were to find a flight back, according to the consulate in Frankfurt, I would have to self-quarantine in the US for two weeks, though it's unclear how that's enforced. Basically, this renders all vacations into the US impossible.
• Germany has closed its borders with France, Denmark, Austria, and Switzerland.
• Restrictions are going up on businesses, including restaurants, clubs, gyms and shopping centers. Many will be forced closed, while others will only be able to operate in shortened time windows.
• The stock market had its worst one-day crash since the 1987 crash.

And there's so much more happening, such as the restrictions going up in municipalities in the US and other European countries, that I can't list out here. It's too much.
Over the weekend, there was a clear shift in tone about this outbreak. Friends who posted skeptical memes about the virus aren't posting that stuff anymore. I have a colleague who felt safe enough to travel outside the country over the weekend and is now worried about if and when he'll be able to get back. I've been saying no to social engagements in an effort to practice "social distancing," and no one has pushed back. My employer has suspended most in-house work for the time being. My wife's work is drying up. I will continue to be paid my salary, but we are facing a definite reduction in income.

On the upside, I've had more time to contact friends and family in the US. They're less busy, and so am I, so it's been good to reconnect. There's also less temptation to spend money! So I got that going for me, I guess.

I'm continuing to hold my stock positions, but it hurts. Many have been hit much harder than the market as a whole, and I have to remind myself why I purchased them. Focus on the picture 20 years out, and it becomes easier to sit tight.

Otherwise, my wife and I are having to adjust to our new realities of being complete homebodies. And of course, we hope that we don't catch this thing.

Spoke too Soon

In my previous post, I wrote that the S&P 500 was below its 200 week moving average. But after yesterday's crazy rip, it closed above it:

How to interpret? I don't know. But I find it noteworthy.

Take the Power Back

It's stunning how quickly everything in the world is moving due to coronavirus:

• Like many organizations, my company has suspended some operations to prevent large social gatherings.
• My wife's business has seen cancellations out of fear.
• Stock markets feel like they're properly crashing. Unlike 2018 or 2016, the S&P 500 is well below the 200-week moving average. That alone makes this look like 2008 or 2001.
• Not to mention, there's the giant oil price blowup.

I took steps weeks ago to manage my risk. I sold my lowest conviction positions, and I extinguished all my margin debt. I'm fully invested (not including our emergency fund) and don't plan on making any adjustments to my existing portfolio. I've made my bed, so now it's time to sleep in it. When I get paid, I'll continue purchasing assets and setting aside cash for our cash buffer.

But more importantly, we're having to face the very real real-life possibility that we and/or many people we love will get ill and, possibly, die. I believe it's important to simply be honest about this and begin to adjust to the reality.

I have two parents over 70. I also have two grandmothers. My sibling in the US is in a densely populated city with rising numbers of infected. My company has around 500 employees working in close contact with one another, and some are definitely high risk. My city is one of the largest in Germany, and cases are increasing here.

It's funny going to the supermarkets here and seeing sold out soy milk or pasta or toilet paper. All those purchases were made out of an attempt to prepare, as if hand sanitizer or toilet paper meant you could control the outcome. Yes, yes, wash your hands, and stop touching your face. This has long been a good standard practice, so even after coronavirus, you should keep this up.

But the preparation must be more in your mind and less in your pantry. We must think through what reality might look like in the coming weeks and months for us. Only then can we make rational choices.

You might have some risks that you need to deal with. Some social distancing is wise. Some financial risks carry "blow up" potential, so deal with them as rationally as possible and move on. However, try to avoid waving your hands and justifying poor choices -- such as selling out of all equities after a big drawdown -- out of fear. We are awfully good at justifying poor behavior, so try and resist it.

And this needn't be a dark process. I've been actively reminding myself of what I enjoy. I enjoy reading. I enjoy music. I enjoy playing guitar and taking pictures. I enjoy exercising. I love my wife. I love my family. These are all things I can have more of if I choose to.

Just as you can. Take whatever power you have and use it to love your life.

Net Worth Update: February, 2020

From last month's update:

Our February budget right now is aiming for a 22.6% savings rate, so if the market holds still for a month, we're looking at a net worth change of ~€1000-€2000.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Instead, our net worth declined to $59,706/€54,826, which is a decline of 4.3% and 3.07% respectively.

Stocks Plunge

The reason is clear. In the last weeks of February, and especially in the last week, the international stock markets plunged. My portfolio went down right alongside it.

The reason for the drop is typically blamed on the outbreak of the coronavirus. That may have been the catalyst, but it's also true that the markets had been running up in valuation, and there was likely going to be something that triggered a pullback in any case. There's no way to run that alternate experiment though, so nothing is certain.

What is certain, is that I saw that the risk was real at the beginning of the week and began unloading my lowest conviction positions. Something told me that heading into this with margin debt wasn't a great idea, so I trimmed that back, and as of this writing, I'm not using margin at all.

This process has actually been very enlightening, because it's helped me see what gives me confidence in positions during difficult situations. Why are some positions that are in drawdowns fine to hold while others in drawdowns grate on my psyche? It was irritating to sell those positions, to be sure, but the money was lost when I bought them, because I didn't buy them for good reasons. I also sold some things for a profit, and again, these were positions that were my least confident positions. But whether something is in drawdown or at a profit isn't necessarily what gives me confidence.

The past few years has been showing me what it looks like to have confidence in positions. I'm not a professional money manager, so finding confidence to hold individual companies might arise from something different in myself than a professional might have. Something else has to grab me about a position to make it worth the stress of owning it.

Anyway, I think I'll write more about this idea in the future.

Savings Rate

We achieved a savings rate of our mixed pre/post tax income of around 31.5% in February, which was pretty good for us! It is disappointing that the money saved seemed to be fed into the markets with very little return, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

I mentioned last month that my wife wants to buy a piano, so we're saving up the required money over the next year. I couldn't stomach the idea of cutting from our asset-building savings to save up for it, so it's coming from both of our BLOW budgets.

March

Who knows what's going to happen. As I said, I'm out of margin debt as of this writing, partially because I got such a large payment from my company at the end of February. I'm still waiting on more dental stuff refunds, so one day that will come.

But the truth is the markets will determine what happens over the next month. I've put in the money, and now I have to wait just like everyone else. Much as I hate to see past money lose value, my future money would appreciate lower asset prices, so I'm of two minds regarding what I want.

Tja, wir sehen mal.