Saturday, December 28, 2019

Net Worth Update: December 2019 and Year End Review

Our net worth increased in December to $59,577 and €53,624, which is a one month change of 4.36% and 3.61% respectively. That's due to my bonus, the infusion of money from a relative to subsidize my wife's music lessons, and the stock market's performance.

For the year over year view, compared to December 2018, our net worth has increased by 60.95% in USD and 65% in EUR. That's an increase of $22,562.

That's not bad, but a lot of it was dumb luck. Compared to the 2019 budget I wrote at the beginning of the year, our spending was higher in nearly every single category than planned, and our saving was lower in both categories than was planned. I wish there were an obvious reason other than just unrealistic expectations, but that's the heart of it.

Percentages

With our total savings of €7,959, we had a savings rate of 13.79%. If we were total newbs at saving starting with nothing, that would imply we'd have 51 years before retirement (according to the famous "The Shockingly Simply Math Behind Early Retirement").

So where did our money go? The top category is "Rent" at 17.78%. Since bundled into the "Rent" are several utilities, it on its own does not seem too egregious. It's not ERE-level, but I'm actually pleased at how low it is. With my regular pay-raises and Germany's strong renter protections, it should trend downward as a percent over time.

The second largest line-item is "Dentist" at 13.01%. As I mentioned often, I had some major dental work done this year, and although I expect some assistance from several sources, only one of them came through before year-end (seen in the graph as "Refunds").

After that are the "BLOW" categories. Combined, they're 12.79%. This is spontaneous money and is something of an allowance for me and my wife. I estimated that we'd need €2,400 each for the year, but in reality, we each spent around €3700.

What lies within those "BLOW" numbers? It contains our hobbies, our restaurant visits with friends, our clothing, some travel, some entertainment, some toys, and so on. It's a big category. I wish I could say that I knew how to restrain spending within it, but it's tricky. Ultimately, we know inside ourselves that we can afford certain things, so we buy them.

Under those large categories are other medium sized expense groups. "Groceries" at 6.9%, "Health Insurance" at 5.68%, "Household" at 5.19%, "Travel" at 2.41% and "Telephone" at 2.36% are the largest. Groceries have proven difficult to cut. There's not much to be done about the "Health Insurance" cost. "Household" was inflated because we bought a sofa and an iPad for my wife when her computer died. It's something of a wildcard in 2020 because I'm not sure when my computer might kick it, but until it does, I'm going to assume that this category will be lower in 2020. "Telephone" was inflated due to my iPhone purchase at the beginning of the year, which I won't repeat in 2020 absent one of us losing or killing a phone.

And "Travel" basically means plane and train tickets for vacations. It's a separate category from our commuting categories (which are so small as to be essentially meaningless). Like everything else, I planned an amount, and we spent more than I planned for. I will just plan for more this year.

Stock Performance

Since our savings rate was so low, the gains came mostly from the performance of the stock market. In December, 2018, there was something of a bear market, so my numbers were depressed. As I wrote then:

Since the majority of whatever wealth we have is in the form of stocks, we were hit hard by the sell-off in equities. Anyone paying attention to the markets this past month would have seen the kind of fast paced elevator down that market pundits have been scaring us about for years. Our savings rate didn't spare us from the damage.

But in 2019, stocks did amazingly well. My collection as a group did very well, in fact, and the turnarounds by some have been shocking. I have some very good winners, and I'm pleased with the names in the portfolio right now.

That said, I did make some mistakes. In general, my mistakes have tended to be selling too early, rather than too late. Some names I took losses on for no good reason, and with others I took profits too early and missed out even higher highs.

Simply abiding a portfolio is hard, and although I'm getting better at it, there's no guarantee that I won't futz around again with negative results.

2020 Expectations

Obviously, I have no control over the stock market, so there's no guarantee that our net worth number will be higher next year than now. But I can control our savings rate.

The biggest change will be the absence of dental costs. I'll go in for a cleaning and all that, but the big procedures are behind me for the time being. If I save that, it will result in a near doubling of our 2019 savings rate. If we cut down our "BLOW" costs, then maybe we can get even more saved.

A wildcard is the parent I mentioned in "My Baby Boomer Parent is Poor". My family has reached an inflection point there, and I wonder if 2020 is the first year I'll have to help. I hope not, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

My wife and I have no large expenses planned for 2020. Maybe a computer, but I'm not going to rush it until it becomes absolutely necessary. We'll do some travel. We have no large-scale furniture purchases planned. My hobbies don't require any new large purchases.

So this year, I'm hoping to save over €10,000 and hopefully closer to €12-€13,000, which would be a 23% savings rate. That feels doable and maybe even beatable.

Here's wishing you and your loved ones a happy and prosperous 2020.