Sunday, January 27, 2019

January 2019 Net Worth Update

Since December 26, our net worth rose 17.5% to $43,488. In EUR it rose 17.3% to €38,114. Here's what lead to that result.

In December, I received an elevated payment from my employer due to some extra work I did. This essentially doubled my salary for the month. This money went various places:

  • I paid off a medical bill that I'd been paying monthly. I'm hoping to reap a tax deduction from it.
  • I bought some stocks.
  • We bought a new iPhone when my wife's five and a half year old phone died after a tragic meeting with some water.
  • We bought some furniture.
  • We bought a coffee maker.

Now, you'll notice not all of this is savings. Sometimes it feels right to spend money. I'm not Early Retirement Extreme. But there's some logic here.

Telephone use is broadly tax deductible in Germany. I'll be able to deduct the cost of this phone over the next three years. Meanwhile, I'm hoping to keep it in our household for at least six or seven. This is one of those areas where we're willing to occasionally spend some money, so we did. The only thing I regret is that I made the purchase using an American credit card when the exchange rate made the euro unusually strong against the dollar, and it's unlikely to reach that rate again before I have to pay the card off.

As for the furniture, this particular upgrade was something we'd contemplated for several years. It wasn't excessively extravagant, but it was unusually expensive for us. I think we're done though with any other major home upgrades for a while, so I don't foresee any other such purchases in our immediate future.

The coffee maker will undoubtedly save us electricity (already shown in my electricity tracking spreadsheet), and it wasn't all that expensive. We'd been making coffee using a pour over method that required water heated on the stovetop. Once poured, the coffee would cool down quickly. The new maker uses less power to heat the water to begin with and then delivers the coffee into a thermally insulated carafe. The coffee is still warm in the late afternoon, meaning less coffee needs to be made in a day, thus saving electricity and grounds.

Note: it's funny what cultures are willing to spend money on. Coffee making in Germany, and likely in Europe as a whole, is an activity where people will spend hundreds of euros on a coffee maker. Some friends of mine have a coffee maker that's just under €1000. Ours was around €55. But the idea of convenient instant coffee is very pervasive here, and if you're not into instant coffee, then that often means a push button machine that takes coffee pods or grinds the beans on demand and coughs up a single cup of coffee.

Stocks did well this month, which boosted our numbers much more than our savings alone did. I don't know what to think of the stock market right now, so it's entirely possible that when I write this update for February, we'll have suffered another major drawdown. The last year has taught me to not get used to up days too much, because they reverse abruptly.

Forecast for the next few months: since I bought everything on credit cards, I'll be paying those off from our cash flows in February and March. That will impact those months' savings rates, but the cards will be fully paid off on time, and since this is a new awards credit card, we should see the bonus hit in February.

There are also some bureaucratic costs that we'll unfortunately have to pay because our tax statement from the government is taking so long to get back to us. It's easy to wander into those when you're a foreigner living abroad and don't entirely understand the system.

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Opportunity and Worry

Big market falls like what happened in December feel like great security buying opportunities. And they are. In my backtests, the difference in performance was stark if you bought right before a crash or well into one (buying in 2007 vs. early 2009 for example).

But here's the catch: you have to be able to survive a bear market and hold your positions. I'm not referencing margin calls or panic induced selling.

No, I mean getting fired from your job and selling just to pay the bills. Recessions are high risk for employees. A recession will happen again, and unemployment will shoot upwards. Absent an MMT-style jobs guarantee, unemployment doesn't stay low forever:

I am unlikely to lose my job in the case of a recession, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed that I won't. Therefore, one set of thoughts I'm balancing is my desire to buy all these cheap securities while questioning whether I have enough cash sitting around to deal with any unexpected surprises. Every working person will have to balance it for themselves and their own situation.